With the downward pressure on China's economy in 2015, the real estate industry has bid farewell to the past high growth stage. However, in Wang Jianlin's view, in the next 5-10 years, (domestic) can not find a "big train" that can replace this industry. For Beijing housing prices, he said that due to the net inflow of population, it will continue to rise in the next 10 years. At the same time, he also said that the real estate industry itself is not a "Long live the industry", real estate companies can not use this as a strategy for long-term survival in the future.
Regarding the real estate industry, there is still no pillar industry to replace real estate in the short term.
The Beijing News: In the first half of the year, the macro data, many economic indicators are not ideal, but real estate is a unique show, and gradually signs of recovery, how do you think about this phenomenon?
Wang Jianlin: Very simple. This round of real estate fire, nearly 150 trillion issued currency, super-fax is positive (corresponding to GDP is only 6 billion), the amount of money is more than twice the amount of GDP, which country is not found in the world. Of course, some of them are understandable. For example, China is still developing. There are some long-term investment projects, railways, highways, etc., which take up a lot of money, but the super-transmission is still obvious. Money flows like water. When the stock market fires, it runs in the stock market. The stock market is not working, and real estate is coming.
It can be explained that in the state of such a downward trend of the macro economy, the real estate industry has performed well since May this year, especially in first- and second-tier cities, and the frequency of the king is frequent. The most fundamental explanation is not the nature and trend of the real estate industry. Good, it is because of the currency phenomenon.
The Beijing News : Can you understand that real estate is still the last "life-saving straw" of the Chinese economy?
Wang Jianlin : Of course. In fact, this round of (economic) decline was caused by the decline in real estate, and it was too embarrassing for real estate. The growth rate of real estate has been maintained at 20% per year until 4 or 5 years ago, and suddenly it has dropped to 10%, even to single digits. This year, it has dropped to 3%-4%, which removes some statistical water. There is no corresponding increase in inflation. There may be no growth. Therefore, real estate is now playing a negative role in the Chinese economy, rather than pulling it forward.
Beijing News : Do you think this "locomotive" can still drive the domestic economy for a long time?
Wang Jianlin : In the short term, I think that within 5-10 years, (domestic) can't find a "big train" that can replace this industry. Real estate now accounts for 12%-13% of GDP, more than 7 trillion yuan, plus related industries, such as building and building electrical and mechanical decoration, estimated to account for about a quarter to 30% of China's GDP, such a large locomotive does not run now, If you want to rely on other industries, it will not increase the amount of driving force behind.
In addition, depending on the policy adjustment, look at the time of inventory, if the policy adjustment is in place, there are still killers now.
I am an old "athlete". Since I entered the real estate industry, I have experienced six real estate "sports". The words are constantly changing. At the beginning, they are rectifying and rectifying, and later they are macro-control, but the actual meaning is the same. Basically, These six times were mainly based on suppressing real estate, because at that time the domestic economy was still in the stage of material shortage, the real estate industry was in a state of short supply, and the experience accumulated by the Chinese government formed a control and control method; the property market suppressed it. The common people (50.45, 0.00, 0.00%) also saw through, knowing that the market is no longer in short supply (the structure of supply and demand changes), the experience and techniques accumulated in the past (the government) for more than 20 years are not good, so it has not been found yet. Ways to mobilize the real estate industry.
In the early and mid-1990s, many policies were introduced: all deed taxes were free, home purchases were paid to personal income tax, and any incentives were introduced to the household registration.
The Beijing News : What is the biggest killer?
Wang Jianlin : The current government is currently a dilemma. Obviously, if you want to go to stock now, you can't make a big killer. Once you come out, it will drive a lot of investment crazy and then enter the real estate market. Once you enter, it will cause more circulation problems. Therefore, I feel that the current operation of the government is correct. Give a small policy, let the real estate industry slowly start, go to some inventory, and then find new models in the painful process.
The country has also put forward a lot of directions, culture, tourism, sports, etc., is to see the time and length of the formation of these new industries. I personally think that the real estate industry can no longer be greatly stimulated, nor can it increase the inventory of this industry.
Regarding the transformation of enterprise transformation, the transformation of housing enterprises is still in the emergency stage.
The Beijing News : Now real estate companies are talking about transformation, talking about light assets, in your opinion, is there any company that has done a good job in the direction of transformation?
Wang Jianlin : Are many companies talking about light assets? I did not see. Many companies are still ambitious to announce how many billions of sales and sales will be achieved in the next year. I have not yet seen anyone making substantial changes in the large-scale enterprises that truly realize the future of this industry (I can't say that it is a crisis, but it has not yet reached that time). The so-called transformation proposed by some enterprises, where to turn, and where to turn, seems to be a strain, emergency.
Beijing News : What do you think is the most important thing for the transformation of real estate companies?
Wang Jianlin : Enterprises should unify the transformation problem from the perspective of thought and culture.
I really think that this industry can't be a long-term survival strategy in the future. With such determination, you can have strategic and tactical reunification, and you can continue to go down. We (Wanda) also experienced such a process.
Nowadays, many real estate companies have come to transform when they encounter sales difficulties. Recently, the market situation has improved and they have begun to sell. I think the real estate market will be better next year than this year. This is certain. why? Small and micro-stimulus has been released, monetary policy is so loose, and bank interest rates will definitely fall. China's economy must move from the medium-to-high speed to the middle and high-end, that is, consumption-oriented, consumer-oriented society must be low interest rates, or even zero interest rates, which is an inevitable phenomenon.
However, the real estate industry itself is not a long live the industry. From a global perspective, basically every country's real estate industry development period is 50 years, about half a century, the industry has developed to 70%-80% is almost the same, of course This industry will not die. Until today, the United States and the United Kingdom still have real estate industry, but it is not the main industry that drives national GDP.
About Wanda embraces the Internet but does not deify
The Beijing News : In terms of transformation, Wanda has already taken the lead. Among them, the e-commerce sector has been proposed as one of the four major industries to adapt to the Internet era. From establishing this goal to this year's Feifan online line, in addition to big data integration, is the current direction still within your expectations?
Wang Jianlin : It has changed completely. It should be said that between the two years, the direction has changed dramatically, completely different from before. I said that I have to do e-commerce, and I didnâ€™t want to know which direction to go. I always feel that I must bravely embrace it for the Internet, but the Internet is not mysterious. It is a tool that cannot be exaggerated or even deified.
It is completely wrong to talk about connected thinking. In fact, the most important thing is that the word "+" behind the Internet is the essence. Internet business, essence or business, Internet finance, essence or finance. If it is the Internet, it is wrong. The word should put the content of "+" in front. I noticed that many of the concepts proposed by the national ministries are like this. For example, the National Tourism Administration proposed tourism + Internet.
No one in Wandaâ€™s history is optimistic about others, and I also think that everyone is optimistic about things. We donâ€™t have to do it anymore. We must be optimistic about the majority, or most people dare not do it. I think that for the Internet industry, to bravely embrace it, what we have to do is to maximize the advantages.
Beijing News : What is the biggest advantage of Wanda?
Wang Jianlin : Huge offline resources. At the beginning of this year, Wanda decided to use offline resources as the first point. Now R&D provides customers with a good ecological business circle within Wanda Commercial. All technical R&D results should be formed in the first quarter, and the second quarter should form a model, including the loan model, the data analysis department should be established, the credit information department should be established, and the next year will be started. Going on the market.
The Beijing News : E-commerce CEOs frequently leave their jobs. At present, under high salaries, they are still waiting for nothing. Someone joked that only Wang Sicong can save Wanda e-commerce.
Wang Jianlin : Then he can't do it.
Beijing News : What kind of talent is suitable for the development requirements of Wanda E-commerce?
Wang Jianlin : Why is the CEO constantly changing? It is because the electronic technology business has come to the business, and basically they are still focusing on business. The solution they proposed is basically toss around electronics and business. All the solutions are not Wanda's advantage is maximized. It is all about Wanda's shortcomings. When it comes up, how many people will be recruited, how much money to invest, and what to do. I just thought that there is no problem in investing money. It can explain which year is profitable, and what sources of income come from, but they are not clear. This is not Wanda's style of doing things.
About housing prices Beijing housing prices will continue to rise in the next 10 years
The Beijing News : The land that Beijing has sold this year has frequently created historical records. Do you think such a market is sustainable?
Wang Jianlin: This situation will continue for at least the next 10 years. Many people think that the king is crazy, the flour is always expensive, and it is difficult to understand in this economically difficult situation. why? First- and second-tier cities are safe, because the biggest advantage is the net inflow of population, and it is still in a state of control. Nowadays, first- and second-tier cities do not buy houses to enter the household. Beijing and Shanghai have no qualifications to buy a house, so they canâ€™t stop it. Beijing has at least 300,000 new people every year, and the most popular one is 900,000 a year.
Beijing News : Does the price of Beijing have a ceiling? When is it expected?
Wang Jianlin : China is now the second largest economy. Some people may analyze that it may become the largest economy in 2020. Together with the country with the largest population, the core cities like Beijing and Shanghai, there are high prices, or the highest in the world. The price is not difficult to understand. Because the biggest problem is that it can no longer expand, and the shortage of supply means that the price will inevitably rise. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will not change in the past eight or eight years.
Judging the real estate situation in a city is very simple. Just look at whether the population flows in or out, is it balanced.
The Beijing News : This year, many high-priced plots have exceeded 50,000 floor prices. These projects will be listed after two or three years. It is expected that the unit price will exceed 100,000 or even higher. What do you think the highest point of Beijing's housing prices in the future?
Wang Jianlin : This is not a good expectation. It is a process of continuous highering. The commercial housing market can't stop in the first-tier cities. Don't expect to suppress the price of commercial housing. In the past, our management ideas were problematic. I thought that it would be wrong to solve the problem of poor people buying houses by holding the price of commercial housing. The house price in Beijing has been reduced to 10,000 yuan. Many people can't afford to buy a house. Therefore, the market will go to the market. If the commodity housing rises, it will go up, and then it will be protected. But because of the tight land use, it will bring new problems. It is necessary to start with the population.
â– The same question and answer transformation is a long-term process
Q : What are the expectations for China's economic transformation in the coming year?
A : Transformation is a long-term process. Let alone one year. In the next three years, the initial transformation of the Chinese economy will be quite difficult.
Now our structure is actually driven by exports and investment. The most gratifying thing is that last year, the service industry and the third industry accounted for 51% of GDP for the first time, but this indicator really needs to achieve 70%, which may take a long time.
Q: What is the biggest difficulty in this?
A : The biggest difficulty is the core industry. The old two horses (export, investment) are tired. The pony (service industry) has not grown up yet, and the switching time is not long. If it is clear that within two or three years, the shift can be successful, if the switch is not possible, the biggest risk may be employment, so the Chinese economy should be the biggest test period in the next 2-3 years.
The real estate industry itself is not a long live the industry. From a global perspective, basically every country's real estate industry development period is 50 years.
I always feel that I must bravely embrace it for the Internet, but the Internet is not mysterious. It is a tool that cannot be exaggerated or even deified.
It is completely wrong to talk about connected thinking. In fact, the most important thing is that the word "+" behind the Internet is the essence. Internet business, essence or business, Internet finance, essence or finance. If it is the Internet, it is wrong.
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